Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners handed the Houston Astros an 8-3 defeat at Daikin Park on May 14, 2026, seizing control early and never relinquishing it. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Houston holding a 43% chance of winning at home, but that figure eroded steadily across the evening and closed at zero. Seattle struck first in the opening inning with three runs, and despite Houston answering with a Yordan Alvarez home run off Luis Castillo in the third — the single biggest swing in Houston's favor, shifting win probability 9.0 points toward the Astros — the Mariners responded decisively. Mitch Garver's fourth-inning home run off Mike Burrows represented the game's most consequential play, adding 16.5 percentage points to Seattle's win probability and effectively snuffing out any momentum Houston had generated.
The scoring line told a story of Seattle accumulating in waves. Two more runs in the fourth, a pair in the sixth matched by two Houston runs in the same frame, and a final tally in the eighth padded a lead that was never seriously threatened after Garver's blow. Cole Young contributed meaningfully to the sixth-inning surge with a double off Burrows that added 6.4 points of win probability. On the negative side for Seattle, Randy Arozarena grounded into a double play in the third that cost the Mariners 7.4 points of win probability, and Houston's César Salazar left opportunity on the table with a lineout in the second that bled 6.9 points from the Astros.
Luis Castillo led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.0, absorbing the Alvarez home run but otherwise limiting Houston's offense to five hits across the ballgame. Castillo's performance anchored the DiamondIQ model's most favorable pitching ledger of the night. Among position players, Garver finished with a WPA of plus-16.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Alvarez paced Houston at plus-11.9 WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 despite his team's lopsided loss. Cole Young rounded out the notable performers at plus-9.6 WPA, reinforcing a Seattle offensive effort that produced 11 hits without a single error.