Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3 in ten innings at Rogers Centre on May 13, 2026, completing a dramatic comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate pinned at just a 32 percent home win probability before first pitch. Neither team scored through the first six innings, and the game remained deadlocked until the Rays pushed a run across in the seventh and another in the eighth to take a 2-0 lead into the final frames. Tampa Bay added two more in the top of the tenth to seemingly put the game out of reach, with Ben Williamson's two-out single off Jeff Hoffman registering a swing of plus-36.5 percent win probability and Yandy Díaz adding a run-producing single of his own for plus-16.7 percent, pushing the Rays to a 3-0 advantage with Toronto facing their final three outs.

Toronto's bottom of the tenth, however, erased that cushion entirely. Kazuma Okamoto drew a walk off Aaron Brooks that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus-20.3 percent, setting the stage for Daulton Varsho's walk-off grand slam, the single most consequential play of the night at plus-69.8 percent win probability added. That one swing off Brooks turned a two-run deficit into a 5-3 final and moved Toronto's win probability from the brink of elimination to 100 percent. On the other side, a Lenyn Sosa double play in the bottom of the seventh off Kevin Kelly had cost the Blue Jays 17.0 percent in win probability, briefly extinguishing a potential rally before the eventual tenth-inning surge.

Varsho finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-60.2 with a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Williamson's clutch single earned him a plus-36.5 WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 on the losing side. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contributed a plus-20.9 WPA for Toronto. Among pitchers, Dylan Cease led all arms at plus-29.5 WPA, with Kevin Kelly adding plus-17.0 and Mason Fluharty contributing plus-13.5 to Toronto's winning effort.