Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 at Fenway Park on May 13, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win moving from a dead-even 50 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Red Sox collected eight hits against zero errors while holding Philadelphia to just three hits, and the game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the sixth inning when Ceddanne Rafaela connected on a home run off Orion Kerkering, a swing that shifted Boston's win probability by plus-26.2 percent and served as the single most impactful play of the contest by a wide margin. That blow extended a Boston lead that had been established in the second inning on a Trevor Story home run off Andrew Painter, worth plus-7.6 percent in win probability, and gave the Red Sox the cushion they would not relinquish.
Philadelphia's lone moment of genuine leverage came in the top of the third when Justin Crawford homered off Sonny Gray to briefly tighten the game, a swing valued at plus-10.6 percent win probability for the Phillies. However, Boston neutralized that threat almost immediately, and Philadelphia compounded its own difficulties in the sixth when Bryce Harper grounded into a double play against Gray, costing the Phillies 7.5 percent in win probability at a moment when they needed baserunners most. Willson Contreras had similarly stalled a Boston rally with a grounded double play off Painter in the third, a minus-7.2 percent swing that briefly kept the game close.
Among individual performers measured by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability metrics, Rafaela led all batters at plus-26.2 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Crawford posted plus-6.8 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing side, and Story contributed plus-6.6 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Sonny Gray led all pitchers with plus-18.7 percent WPA, followed by Andrew Painter at plus-11.6 percent and Garrett Whitlock at plus-8.1 percent, a distribution that reflects how thoroughly Boston's pitching staff managed the Philadelphia lineup across nine innings.