Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-1 at Truist Park on May 13, 2026, in a game that remained tight through seven innings before Atlanta pulled away decisively in the eighth. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Atlanta with a 62% home win probability, and that estimate climbed to 100% by the final out as the Braves' offense broke through against Chicago's bullpen with a three-run burst late.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth inning, when two swings off reliever Phil Maton effectively ended any competitive tension. Mauricio Dubón delivered the biggest blow of the night, a home run that shifted win probability by plus 21.4 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Mike Yastrzemski followed with a double that added another 11.9 percentage points to Atlanta's advantage, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate well beyond any realistic Cubs comeback scenario. Drake Baldwin had set the tone earlier with a solo home run off Shota Imanaga in the fourth inning, a swing worth plus 11.4 win-probability points that gave Atlanta the game's first run. Chicago's best moment came in the top of the fifth, when Nico Hoerner singled off Tyler Kinley for a plus 9.1 percentage point swing, sparking the Cubs' lone run, but that answer proved short-lived.
On the pitching side, Shota Imanaga led all pitchers in WPA at plus 25.0 percentage points, a reflection of the quality work he delivered before the Cubs' bullpen faltered. Robert Suarez added plus 10.6 percentage points out of the Atlanta bullpen, highlighted by a key strikeout of Seiya Suzuki in the top of the eighth that carried a minus 9.6 percentage point impact from Chicago's perspective, extinguishing a potential rally before it gained traction. Dylan Lee contributed plus 8.3 percentage points for Atlanta as the Braves' staff combined to hold the Cubs to four hits and no errors across nine innings.