Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Miami Marlins 3-0 on May 12, 2026, at Target Field, with all three runs arriving in a single fifth-inning burst that effectively settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning Minnesota a 54 percent home win probability, but by the time the final out was recorded that figure had climbed to 100 percent, a shift driven almost entirely by one swing of the bat.

That swing came in the bottom of the fifth, when Ryan Jeffers connected for a home run off Marlins starter Eury Pérez, a hit the DiamondIQ model measured at plus 30.7 percent win probability added, the single largest swing of the game. Jeffers finished as the game's top offensive performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 24.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.2, making him the clear catalyst of the offense. Earlier, in the bottom of the third, the Twins had probed Pérez without converting, as strikeouts by Josh Bell and a lineout by Jeffers each subtracted 4.7 percent from Minnesota's win probability, while walks issued to Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis each added 3.8 percent. Larnach ultimately finished second among Twin batters with a WPA of plus 7.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.2.

On the mound, Bailey Ober was the dominant force, posting a game-high plus 37.1 percent WPA as he and a pair of relievers, Josh Ekness and Lake Bachar, combined to hold Miami to two hits and one error with no runs across nine innings. The Marlins managed almost nothing offensively, and the model's lean toward Minnesota proved understated given how efficiently the Twins pitching staff suppressed any realistic path to a Miami comeback.