Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-2 at Truist Park on May 12, 2026, and the outcome was settled by a decisive fifth inning that erased any doubt about which team would prevail. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Atlanta a 59 percent home win probability, and by the time the final out was recorded that figure had reached 100 percent.

The game's turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth, where Mike Yastrzemski delivered the most consequential blow of the night against Cubs starter Colin Rea. Yastrzemski's home run in that frame shifted win probability by 21.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and he followed that with Austin Riley's home run off the same pitcher adding another 13.1 points. That two-homer burst in the fifth gave Atlanta a commanding cushion that the Cubs' offense, which managed just one hit all evening, had no realistic chance of overcoming. The only Chicago response of note had come in the top of the fourth, when Alex Bregman connected for a home run off Grant Holmes to generate an 11.4 percent swing, accounting for both Cubs runs in what proved to be a brief moment of promise.

Yastrzemski finished as the game's standout performer with a combined WPA of plus 29.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.6, anchoring both the third inning with a single worth 8.8 percentage points and the fifth-inning home run. On the mound, Didier Fuentes was the model's top-rated pitcher with a plus 15.5 percent WPA contribution, supported by Dylan Lee at plus 4.5 percent and Raisel Iglesias at plus 2.4 percent, as Atlanta's staff held Chicago to a single hit across nine innings.