Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-5 at Rogers Centre on May 11, 2026, completing a wire-to-wire victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected throughout, with Toronto's pre-game home win probability of 31 percent falling all the way to zero by the final out. Tampa Bay erupted for three runs in the first inning and added two more in the second, building a lead that the Blue Jays spent the remainder of the game chasing. Toronto mustered a three-run second inning of its own to briefly apply pressure, but the Rays answered with single runs in the fourth and fifth to extend their cushion, and a seventh-inning exchange left the score at 8-5 heading into the final two frames. The Rays finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Toronto managed only six hits and was charged with one.

Andrés Giménez was the decisive figure in this contest, accumulating a game-high plus-25.6 percent WPA and plus-4.0 RE24 on the strength of two home runs and a crucial strikeout. His first home run, a solo shot off Drew Rasmussen in the bottom of the second, was the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus-13.9 percent. He added another home run off Ian Seymour in the seventh worth plus-7.7 percent, and his strikeout to end the ninth off Bryan Baker closed the door with a plus-6.3 percent swing. Jonathan Aranda contributed a home run off Kevin Gausman in the fifth inning, adding plus-6.9 percent WPA and finishing the game at plus-8.7 percent overall. Junior Caminero's groundout against Gausman in the fourth produced a plus-8.0 percent swing, finishing at plus-7.6 percent WPA.

On the pitching side, Hunter Bigge led all pitchers with plus-12.2 percent WPA, and Drew Rasmussen contributed plus-9.0 percent despite surrendering the Giménez home run in the second. Mason Fluharty added plus-1.6 percent WPA in relief. Kevin Gausman absorbed the damage from both the Aranda home run in the fifth and the Caminero groundout sequence in the fourth, as Tampa Bay's lineup consistently put pressure on Toronto's starter throughout the early and middle innings. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward Tampa Bay even before first pitch given the pre-game probabilities, and the Rays validated that lean decisively across nine innings.