St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 in ten innings at Petco Park on May 10, 2026, completing a comeback that unfolded almost entirely in the game's final frames. St. Louis had carried a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres win had been suppressed through eight scoreless innings before swinging violently in San Diego's favor over the course of a matter of outs.

The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the ninth when Nick Castellanos connected on a home run off Riley O'Brien, a swing that added 49.8 percentage points to San Diego's win probability and represented the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. That blast tied the game and fundamentally reset the contest. Castellanos finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 47.0 and plus 1.7 RE24. Also in that ninth inning, Ramón Laureano's strikeout, again off O'Brien, added 14.0 percentage points to San Diego's side by stranding a threat before Castellanos came through. The game moved to extras with the score knotted at two. In the bottom of the tenth, Fernando Tatis Jr. drew a walk off Gordon Graceffo that shifted win probability another 22.5 points toward the Padres, setting the stage for the eventual walkoff run. Tatis finished with a WPA of plus 20.9 and RE24 of plus 0.7. On the pitching side, Kyle Leahy led San Diego's relievers with a WPA of plus 25.8, followed by JoJo Romero at plus 14.3. Jordan Walker had given St. Louis its early life with a two-run home run off Walker Buehler in the fourth, worth plus 21.5 WPA for the Cardinals, but that lead proved insufficient as the Padres bullpen and late-game offense took over.