Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins walked off with an 8-7 win over the Washington Nationals on May 9, 2026, at loanDepot park, rallying from an early three-run deficit to claim a game the DiamondIQ model had opened as a virtual coin flip at 51 percent in favor of the home side. Washington struck first and struck hard, plating three runs in the top of the first inning to seize early control, and the Nationals carried that lead into the middle innings while holding Miami off the scoreboard through the first three frames. The Marlins, however, chipped away steadily, getting a two-run fourth on a Kyle Stowers home run off Zack Littell that shifted win probability 14.7 percent toward Miami, then adding single runs in the sixth and seventh to keep the pressure building. By the time Miami's offense was finished, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had moved from that pregame 51 percent all the way to 100 percent in favor of the Marlins.

The decisive stretch came in the seventh and eighth innings, driven almost entirely by Jakob Marsee and Xavier Edwards. Edwards delivered a solo home run off Mitchell Parker in the bottom of the seventh that swung win probability 18.5 percent toward Miami, and Marsee then buried Washington with a home run off Parker in the eighth for a 23.6 percent swing — the single most impactful play of the game. An earlier Marsee walk in the sixth off Littell had already added 8.6 percent, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Marsee finished as the game's top batter at plus 27.0 percent WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, with Edwards close behind at plus 17.2 percent WPA. Connor Norby contributed plus 14.5 percent WPA as the Marlins built their four-run eighth that turned a one-run deficit into a commanding cushion. Washington's late push of three runs in the ninth proved cosmetic against a finished outcome.

On the mound, Richard Lovelady led Miami's pitching staff with plus 19.2 percent WPA, a performance highlighted by Owen Caissie's strikeout in the second inning that cost Washington 8.2 percent in win probability and helped Lovelady strand any early threat. Andrew Nardi added plus 10.6 percent WPA and John King contributed plus 6.8 percent as the Marlins bullpen collectively protected the lead through Washington's late charge. Mitchell Parker absorbed the two critical home runs but the damage was offset by Miami's timely offense. The Nationals finished with 11 hits and committed two errors, while Miami posted a clean defensive game with 12 hits and no errors in the 8-7 final.