New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at Chase Field on May 9, 2026, in a low-scoring affair that was largely settled by the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Arizona a 63% win probability, and the decisive scoring came early. Brett Baty gave the Mets a brief spark in the top of the second with a double off Merrill Kelly, a swing that added 5.5% to New York's win probability, but Arizona answered with a two-run third inning that shifted the game's complexion entirely. The key blow was Ildemaro Vargas's single off Clay Holmes, a hit that swung win probability 17.1% in Arizona's favor and represented the single most impactful play of the game. Adrian Del Castillo was the top offensive contributor by WPA on the night, finishing with a +10.4% WPA and +1.4 RE24 as Arizona's offense manufactured the runs that would prove to be the margin.

From the third inning onward, Merrill Kelly and the Arizona bullpen systematically shut down any Mets rally. Kelly finished as the game's top pitcher by WPA at +23.7%, holding New York's lineup to minimal damage across his outing. Paul Sewald closed it out in the ninth, where MJ Melendez's strikeout to end the game carried a -7.1% WPA swing, and Sewald finished at +15.2% WPA. Taylor Clarke also contributed +10.8% WPA in bridge work between the two. The Mets managed just three hits on the night and never seriously threatened after Baty's second-inning double, as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Arizona's win probability reached 100% by the final out. The D-backs needed little beyond Kelly's early command and Vargas's opportunistic single to hold off a New York offense that went silent through seven consecutive scoreless innings.