Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-1 at Rate Field on May 9, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by the third inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the contest with the White Sox holding a 53% home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, a shift driven almost entirely by one bat and one arm.

Miguel Vargas was the central figure offensively, delivering the two most consequential swings of the afternoon. His home run off Luis Castillo in the bottom of the third added 12.9% in win probability, the single largest play of the game, pushing Chicago in front with a 2-0 lead at that point. He followed it with a second home run in the fifth, this one off Josh Simpson, worth an additional 6.3%. Combined, Vargas finished with a WPA of plus-17.6% and an RE24 of plus-2.3, numbers that reflect how thoroughly he controlled the outcome at the plate. Mitch Garver also factored into the run-scoring via a third-inning error by the Mariners that carried a 6.2% swing in Chicago's favor, and he ended the game with a WPA of plus-8.7%.

On the mound, Anthony Kay was equally decisive. He produced a WPA of plus-14.8%, benefiting in part from Seattle's inability to generate any sustained threat against him. The Mariners managed just four hits on the night and scored their lone run in the fifth. Seattle's best opportunity evaporated in the fourth when Josh Naylor grounded into a double play off Kay, a sequence that cost the Mariners 6.1% in win probability. Grant Taylor added plus-6.2% in relief to close out the White Sox pitching contribution. The model leans toward crediting Kay and Vargas as the two players most responsible for the final margin.