Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Minnesota Twins 6-4 on May 8, 2026, at Progressive Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate never fully surrendered, with Cleveland entering the game as a 65% favorite and closing at 100% probability.

The decisive swing came in the seventh inning, when Byron Buxton delivered a home run off Matt Festa that shifted win probability by 18.2 points in Minnesota's favor, temporarily tightening what had been a lopsided Cleveland advantage built on a four-run first inning. That proved to be the Twins' best and last real foothold. José Ramírez answered in the bottom half of the seventh with a single off Eric Orze that swung win probability 11.1 points back toward Cleveland, and the Guardians used an Austin Hedges single off Anthony Banda in the eighth, worth 6.5 points of win probability, to effectively seal the outcome. Minnesota's best threat in the eighth evaporated when Matt Wallner flied out to Tim Herrin at a cost of 8.7 points of win probability, negating much of the momentum generated when Luke Keaschall drew a walk off Colin Holderman moments later for a 7.1-point swing.

Buxton finished as Minnesota's top performer with a WPA of plus-19.6 and an RE24 of plus-2.4, but his contributions were ultimately insufficient. Ramírez led all Guardians hitters with a WPA of plus-12.7 and an RE24 of plus-1.7, while Austin Martin contributed a WPA of plus-5.3. On the mound, Cleveland reliever Tim Herrin was the game's most valuable arm by win probability, posting a WPA of plus-15.2, with Parker Messick adding plus-7.4. Minnesota managed 13 hits against Cleveland's 8, but the Twins committed one error and could not overcome the early four-run deficit Cleveland established in the first inning.