Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handed the Cincinnati Reds a 10-0 shutout at Great American Ball Park on May 8, 2026, a result that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 64 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. Houston's offense struck early and never relented, with the bulk of the damage coming via the long ball against Reds starter Nick Lodolo. Zach Dezenzo got things going in the second inning with a home run off Lodolo that shifted win probability by plus 8.6 percent in Houston's favor, and Yordan Alvarez delivered the game's single most impactful blow in the sixth, a home run off Lodolo that swung win probability an additional plus 15.6 percent. The Astros would tack on two more in the sixth, one in the eighth, and a five-run ninth to finish with 10 runs on 13 hits and zero errors.

The story on the Cincinnati side was as much about missed opportunity as it was about Houston's dominance. The Reds' two biggest negative win-probability moments came against Astros starter Mike Burrows: Tyler Stephenson's lineout in the second cost Cincinnati 9.3 percentage points of win probability, and Spencer Steer's flyout in the fourth cost another 9.0. Nathaniel Lowe's single in the fourth did generate plus 8.3 percent for Cincinnati, but the Reds stranded those opportunities and mustered only five hits all night. Burrows was the defining figure of the contest, finishing with a plus 42.6 percent WPA mark that underscores just how thoroughly he controlled the Cincinnati lineup. Among Houston's batters, Alvarez led the way at plus 15.1 WPA and plus 1.7 RE24, with Isaac Paredes adding plus 7.3 WPA and Dezenzo contributing plus 6.9 WPA alongside a plus 1.4 RE24. The DiamondIQ model, which had the game leaning Cincinnati before first pitch, watched that edge evaporate completely as Houston's pitching and timely power hitting produced one of the more lopsided outcomes of the young season.