Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handled the Cincinnati Reds 8-3 at Wrigley Field on May 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 70 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent by the final out. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Chicago erupted for seven runs to effectively end any competitive tension. The inning's two most impactful plays belonged to Michael Conforto, whose walk off Connor Phillips carried a win-probability swing of plus 7.7 percent, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose single off Phillips added another plus 6.4 percent. That seven-run outburst turned a manageable game into a rout, and Cincinnati never recovered.

Conforto was the offensive catalyst throughout, finishing as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 15.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.6. He had already done damage in the second inning, connecting on a home run off Rhett Lowder for a plus 7.8 percent swing. Crow-Armstrong ranked second among position players at plus 9.6 percent WPA, while Miguel Amaya contributed plus 8.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.2, providing production deeper in the lineup. On the pitching side, Shota Imanaga led all arms with a plus 6.3 percent WPA contribution, keeping Cincinnati in check during the early innings and holding the game's structure intact.

Cincinnati's best chances to generate momentum were erased quickly. Alex Bregman's lineout off Lowder in the first inning cost the Reds minus 5.1 percent in win probability, and Nico Hoerner's double-play grounder in the third, also off Lowder, drained another minus 8.4 percent from the Cubs' perspective, though Lowder finished with a positive WPA of plus 0.8 overall. Lowder ultimately held his own in the box score despite those swings. The final line of nine hits for Cincinnati against seven for Chicago understates how lopsided the game became once the Cubs' fourth-inning rally landed.