Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Boston Red Sox an 8-4 defeat at Fenway Park on May 7, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from early on, having set Boston's pre-game win probability at just 29 percent. The Rays struck first in the second inning, when both teams exchanged three runs in what appeared to be an early back-and-forth contest, but Tampa Bay methodically extended its lead and never surrendered it, adding two more in the sixth, one in the eighth, and two in the ninth while holding Boston to a single run over the game's final eight frames.
The decisive sequence came in the sixth inning, where the Rays did their most damaging work against Greg Weissert. Chandler Simpson's single in that frame added 14.7 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, the single largest swing of the night, and a subsequent walk drawn by Ben Williamson off the same pitcher added another 10.4 percent, effectively closing the door on any Boston comeback. Simpson returned in the eighth to deliver a triple off Ryan Watson that shifted the win probability another 12.4 percent in the Rays' favor. Simpson finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-27.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.6. Williamson contributed plus-13.8 percent WPA across the evening. Boston's brightest moment came in the second inning when Caleb Durbin singled off Griffin Jax for a plus-8.8 percent swing, and Jarren Duran's eighth-inning double added 8.6 percent, though neither proved consequential to the final outcome.
On the mound, Tampa Bay's pitching staff was equally decisive. Hunter Bigge led all pitchers with plus-13.7 percent WPA, followed by Jake Bennett at plus-10.5 percent and Kevin Kelly at plus-8.8 percent. The Rays finished with 13 hits against Boston's 7, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win fell to zero percent by the final out. The model had leaned toward Tampa Bay entering the night, and the on-field result validated that assessment decisively.