New York Mets at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the New York Mets 6-2 on May 5, 2026, at Coors Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from a pre-game 56 percent all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Colorado's offense was largely quiet through the middle innings, but a four-run eighth inning proved decisive, turning a close game into a comfortable margin. The Mets had briefly taken a 2-0 lead after a two-run second inning, but they were unable to extend it, and New York's pitching staff could not hold the line when it mattered most.

The two biggest win-probability swings of the game belonged to Jake McCarthy, who was the central figure in Colorado's victory. His double off Huascar Brazobán in the bottom of the sixth added 14.1 percent to Colorado's win probability, and his home run off Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the eighth swung an additional 17.7 percent, representing the single most impactful play of the game. Troy Johnston followed with a single off Kimbrel in that same eighth inning, contributing another 10.6 percent swing as Colorado pulled away. On the other side, Mark Vientos grounded into a double play in the top of the third against Jose Quintana, costing the Mets 9.3 percent in win probability at a moment when they still held the lead.

McCarthy finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-27.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.8. Troy Johnston added plus-8.8 percent WPA, while Willi Castro contributed plus-6.2 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Christian Scott led all pitchers with plus-16.6 percent WPA, followed by Austin Warren at plus-13.9 percent and Antonio Senzatela at plus-11.3 percent, as Colorado's staff kept the Mets' lineup largely in check after the second inning.