St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Diego Padres 2-1 at Petco Park on May 7, 2026, handing San Diego a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with the home side holding a 54 percent win probability. The Cardinals scored in the fourth and seventh innings while holding the Padres to a single run, finishing with five hits and no errors against San Diego's four hits and no errors.

The decisive swing came in the top of the seventh, when Masyn Winn laced a triple off Bradgley Rodriguez that shifted win probability 19.6 points in St. Louis's favor, providing what would prove to be the eventual margin. The Padres had opportunities to respond but fell short in critical moments, most notably when Xander Bogaerts struck out against George Soriano in the bottom of the seventh, a swing of 14.3 points against San Diego, and when Rodolfo Duran grounded out against JoJo Romero in the eighth, costing the Padres another 12.9 points of win probability. Manny Machado's groundout to end the bottom of the ninth, off Riley O'Brien, was the single biggest play of the game by win-probability impact at 31.6 points, extinguishing San Diego's final hope and closing out the Cardinals' one-run victory.

Among individual performers, Machado finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-25.9 despite the negative outcome for the Padres, a figure reflecting his plate appearances in high-leverage spots throughout the game. Winn and Jordan Walker led the Cardinals offensively with WPA figures of plus-12.7 and plus-12.1 respectively. On the mound, JoJo Romero was the Cardinals' most valuable reliever at plus-23.3 WPA, with Matthew Liberatore close behind at plus-22.3 and Michael King contributing plus-18.6, a collective pitching effort that proved just enough to protect the slim lead.