Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers dismantled the Houston Astros 12-2 at Daikin Park on May 6, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided before the midpoint. The DiamondIQ model entered with Houston holding a 32 percent home win probability, but that figure collapsed rapidly as Los Angeles plated five runs in the third inning and added three more in the fifth, leaving the Astros with no viable path to recovery. The final win probability for Houston settled at zero percent, a reflection of just how thoroughly the Dodgers controlled the contest across nine innings. Los Angeles finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Houston managed only five hits and was equally clean in the field.

The third inning was the decisive sequence, and Andy Pages was its centerpiece. His home run off Lance McCullers Jr. carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 20.0 percent, shifting the contest decisively in the Dodgers' favor. Shohei Ohtani followed with a double off McCullers that added another 10.4 percent, and Freddie Freeman's walk contributed an additional 8.7 percent in the same frame, all three coming against the Houston starter. The only meaningful swing in Houston's direction came in the first inning, when a Christian Walker groundout off Tyler Glasnow added 6.8 percent for the Astros' side, though it produced no run and amounted to little given what followed.

Pages led all position players by WPA at plus 20.7 percent with an RE24 of plus 4.8, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Freeman finished second among batters at plus 12.2 percent WPA and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while Ohtani posted plus 10.7 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Jack Dreyer led the Dodgers' bullpen contributors with plus 2.1 percent WPA, followed closely by Edgardo Henriquez at plus 2.0 percent, as Los Angeles held the Astros to two runs across the full game.