Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs walked off the Cincinnati Reds 3-2 in ten innings on May 5, 2026, at Wrigley Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 65 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to certainty by the final out. Cincinnati had held the lead after Nathaniel Lowe's sixth-inning home run off Jameson Taillon swung win probability 13.5 points in the Reds' favor, but Chicago answered quickly. The Cubs chipped away in the seventh and eighth innings before Michael Busch delivered the moment that turned the game, launching a home run off Tony Santillan in the bottom of the eighth that shifted win probability by 23.6 points and knotted the score to force extras.
The tenth inning told the rest of the story entirely through Busch. Elly De La Cruz grounded out to begin the top half, a play that actually moved the needle 11.1 points back toward Chicago by limiting Cincinnati's threat. After Sam Moll entered to face the Cubs in the bottom of the frame, Busch lined a walk-off single that closed the door completely, a 35.9-point win-probability swing that was the single most impactful play of the night. Busch finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-64.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.1, numbers that reflect just how thoroughly he authored the Cubs' victory in its final stages.
On the pitching side, Andrew Abbott led all arms with a plus-31.5 WPA, while Daniel Palencia contributed plus-13.5 and Jacob Webb added plus-7.4 as Chicago's bullpen ultimately held the Reds to two runs on six hits. Cincinnati committed one error and Cincinnati's Moisés Ballesteros hurt his own side with a sixth-inning forceout that erased 12.1 points of win probability in what proved to be a missed opportunity to extend the lead. Lowe and Nico Hoerner, who posted a plus-12.4 WPA for Chicago, were the other notable contributors, but the night belonged to Busch from the eighth inning on.