Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers held off the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Busch Stadium on May 5, 2026, completing the win on a somewhat counterintuitive final play. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Cardinals a 43 percent chance of winning, a figure that eroded steadily before reaching zero. St. Louis scored twice in the first inning to grab an early lead, but Milwaukee answered with a two-run third on a Joey Ortiz double off Bruce Zimmermann that swung win probability 12.2 percent in the Brewers' favor. Iván Herrera countered with a solo home run off Jacob Misiorowski in the bottom half, keeping the Cardinals within reach, and the game remained tight through the middle frames before Christian Yelich delivered a go-ahead double off JoJo Romero in the seventh, a hit that shifted win probability 17.8 percent toward Milwaukee and proved to be the decisive blow.

The Cardinals mounted a late threat, but Aaron Ashby navigated the eighth with the help of Alec Burleson grounding into a forceout, a play that actually cost St. Louis 19.9 percent in win probability and ended what had been a dangerous sequence. In the ninth, Nathan Church's groundout off Abner Uribe closed the door in an anticlimactic fashion, though the play registered a 27.0 percent swing in Milwaukee's favor as the Cardinals' final rally fell short. Ashby was the pitching standout, finishing with a model-leading 23.3 percent WPA contribution, while Justin Bruihl added 11.0 percent in support. Among position players, Yelich led all batters at plus-23.0 percent WPA with a 2.3 RE24, and Ortiz contributed a solid plus-15.1 percent WPA and 1.6 RE24 in a balanced offensive effort that gave Milwaukee its road victory on five Cardinals errors of omission and ten Brewers hits.