Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves took a 3-2 decision over the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on May 5, 2026, rallying from a deficit to hand the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had given just a 30 percent chance of avoiding before first pitch. Seattle got on the board first in the bottom of the third, when J.P. Crawford connected on a home run off Bryce Elder that shifted win probability 18.1 percent in the Mariners' favor. Atlanta answered in the top of the fourth, with Mauricio Dubón delivering a double off George Kirby that swung the model's estimate 18.6 percent toward the Braves and put Atlanta ahead 2-1, a lead that held into the late innings.

The game's single most decisive moment came in the top of the ninth, when Matt Olson launched a home run off Andrés Muñoz, a swing worth +34.2 percent in win probability that pushed Atlanta's advantage to 3-2 and proved to be the winning margin. Olson finished as the game's top batter by WPA at +35.9 percent with a RE24 of +1.6. The Mariners mounted a final threat in the bottom of the ninth against Raisel Iglesias — Josh Naylor singled to add 9.0 percent to Seattle's win probability — but Dominic Canzone grounded out to end the game, a result that paradoxically registered as the second-largest single-play swing of the night at +21.4 percent WPA from Atlanta's perspective, as it extinguished Seattle's last meaningful chance.

On the mound, George Kirby led all pitchers with a WPA of +26.2 percent despite surrendering the go-ahead double to Dubón, while Robert Suarez and José A. Ferrer contributed +10.9 and +10.6 percent respectively in relief work that kept Atlanta within reach long enough for Olson's decisive blow. Dubón finished with a RE24 of +2.0, the highest of any batter in the game, reflecting the broader run-environment value of his fourth-inning contribution beyond its win-probability impact alone.