Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 at Busch Stadium on May 2, 2026, with all three Cardinals runs coming in a decisive third inning that proved to be the margin of victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability for St. Louis, and by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Cardinals controlled the contest despite a late Los Angeles push.
The third inning was the turning point in every meaningful sense. Jordan Walker's home run off Roki Sasaki was the single most consequential play of the game, shifting win probability by plus 17.2 percent in St. Louis's favor and providing the offensive centerpiece of a three-run frame. Iván Herrera added a double in the same inning, contributing a plus 6.4 percent swing that helped extend the Cardinals' advantage. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani grounded into a double play off Michael McGreevy in the top of the third, a minus 8.0 percent swing that extinguished a Dodgers threat before it could take shape and effectively handed St. Louis the breathing room it needed.
Los Angeles did not go quietly in the ninth, as Andy Pages singled off Riley O'Brien for a plus 10.4 percent swing, and the Dodgers ultimately scored twice to make the final 3-2. However, Dalton Rushing's strikeout represented a minus 10.9 percent swing that halted the rally short of a tying run. Michael McGreevy was the standout performer on the pitching side, finishing with plus 22.5 percent WPA, while Walker led all batters at plus 17.0 percent WPA with a plus 1.7 RE24, making him the clear driver of the Cardinals' victory.