Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handed the Boston Red Sox a 6-3 defeat at Fenway Park on May 2, 2026, erasing a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of a 55 percent home win probability down to zero by the final out. The decisive blow came in the top of the fourth inning, when Brice Matthews launched a home run off Connelly Early that swung Houston's win probability by plus-17.0 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Jose Altuve added to that fourth-inning damage with a double off Early that contributed a further plus-9.6 percent to Houston's win probability, as the Astros plated four runs in the frame to build a lead Boston never recovered from. Spencer Arrighetti kept the Red Sox largely in check on the mound throughout the contest, generating the highest pitching WPA of the night at plus-20.6 percent.

Boston had its moments but was repeatedly stifled when chances arose. The most damaging sequence for the Red Sox came in the bottom of the third, when Willson Contreras grounded into a double play off Arrighetti, a play that cost Boston minus-16.7 percent in win probability and snuffed out what had been a meaningful opportunity. A late seventh-inning rally showed some signs of life, with Masataka Yoshida drawing a walk off Kai-Wei Teng for a plus-7.8 percent swing, but Ceddanne Rafaela's strikeout in that same inning cost Boston minus-11.5 percent and effectively ended any realistic path back. Teng closed the door with a plus-8.8 percent WPA contribution in relief. On the offensive side, Matthews finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-18.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Wilyer Abreu was nearly his equal at plus-18.3 percent and plus-1.9 RE24, giving Houston a balanced and decisive offensive effort across the lineup.