Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals handed the Seattle Mariners a 7-6 defeat at T-Mobile Park on May 1, 2026, overcoming a home team that the DiamondIQ model had pegged at a 62 percent win probability before first pitch. Kansas City jumped out quickly, plating four runs in the opening inning, and while Seattle chipped away throughout the middle frames, the Royals answered each surge with enough runs to stay ahead. The game came down to its final out, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate dropping to zero percent for the Mariners by the time it was over.
The two most decisive moments of the evening came in the seventh and ninth innings, and they cut in opposite directions for Seattle. Julio Rodríguez delivered a home run off Daniel Lynch IV in the bottom of the seventh that swung win probability 31.4 percentage points toward the Mariners, momentarily making the game a genuine contest. That momentum, however, was undone inning by inning. Matt Strahm was the single most valuable arm of the night, posting a plus-23.3 percent WPA figure, highlighted by a strikeout of Dominic Canzone in the eighth that swung win probability 16.5 points back toward Kansas City. Then in the ninth, with Seattle's hopes alive, Cal Raleigh popped out against Lucas Erceg, a play that carried a 31.6 percent win-probability swing sealing the Royals' win.
Rodríguez finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-27.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.0, the best run-context contribution of anyone in the lineup. Raleigh posted a plus-25.4 percent WPA figure despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.8, a reflection of his game-ending out being scored as a benefit to Kansas City's ledger. On the offensive side for the Royals, Vinnie Pasquantino's sixth-inning home run off Bryan Woo added 12.1 percent win probability and helped KC answer Seattle's fifth-inning solo shot from Connor Joe. Cole Ragans, who surrendered that Joe homer, still finished with a plus-14.8 percent WPA, indicating his overall outing kept Seattle in check enough to preserve the road victory.