Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees handled the Baltimore Orioles 7-2 at Yankee Stadium on May 1, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foreshadowed from the outset, with New York entering as a 72% favorite and closing at 100%. The game was effectively decided in the second inning, when the Yankees sent a crooked number on the board against Orioles starter Cade Povich. Ben Rice was the central figure, launching a home run that added 16.2% to New York's win probability, the single largest swing of the night. José Caballero followed with another home run off Povich in the same frame, adding a further 7.6%, and just like that the Yankees had built a cushion that Baltimore never seriously threatened. The Orioles had briefly shown life in the top of the second when Pete Alonso took Will Warren deep for a solo shot that added 4.9% to Baltimore's win probability, but that rally was short-lived and the lead stayed firmly in New York's hands throughout.

The individual numbers told a clean story about who drove the outcome. Rice finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-15.2%, pairing that with a plus-2.4 RE24 mark that reflected the high-leverage, run-producing nature of his contribution. Alonso posted plus-5.8% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 for Baltimore, making him the Orioles' most impactful bat despite the losing effort. Caballero added plus-5.4% WPA on the pitching side, Will Warren led New York's staff with plus-0.9% WPA, supported by Camilo Doval at plus-1.9% and Fernando Cruz at plus-1.3%, as the bullpen held Baltimore to just two runs on three hits across the nine innings. The Yankees' 11-hit output against a Baltimore staff that allowed four runs in the second inning alone made this a comfortable, wire-to-wire win.