The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 5-4 at Citi Field on April 30, 2026, handing New York a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw swing from a 39 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. Washington scored in the second, third, and eighth innings, while New York's three-run third briefly gave the Mets control before the Nationals ultimately pulled away.
The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth inning when CJ Abrams hit a home run off Luke Weaver, a swing that shifted win probability by 33.3 percentage points and proved to be the game's single most impactful play. Abrams finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-37.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3. Earlier, MJ Melendez had given the Mets life with a home run off Miles Mikolas in the bottom of the third, a plus-28.6 percent WPA swing that represented New York's best offensive moment. Juan Soto added a double off Richard Lovelady in the eighth that moved the needle by 13.4 percentage points, but a Tyrone Taylor lineout in that same frame cost the Mets 18.7 percentage points of win probability and stalled the rally.
Gus Varland closed it out for Washington, and his most important contribution came in the bottom of the ninth when Ronny Mauricio struck out to end the game, a plus-21.4 percent WPA event that sealed the win. On the pitching side, Freddy Peralta led all pitchers with a plus-9.2 percent WPA, followed by Brooks Raley at plus-8.5 percent. The Nationals finished with no errors while New York committed one, a clean execution edge that complemented Washington's late-game power to secure the road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.