The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 10-5 at PNC Park on April 30, 2026, handing Pittsburgh a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had projected as a genuine toss-up, with a pre-game home win probability of 46 percent. St. Louis scored in the first, third, fifth, and eighth innings, with that eighth-inning outburst of five runs proving the decisive blow that pushed the model's final win probability for Pittsburgh to zero percent.
The game's most impactful moments unfolded in waves. Pittsburgh generated the biggest single swing of the contest in the bottom of the seventh, when Brandon Lowe connected on a home run off JoJo Romero for a gain of 15.2 percent in win probability, briefly tightening the Cardinals' grip. Bryan Reynolds had earlier added a double off Justin Bruihl in the bottom of the fifth, worth 12.1 percent in win probability, as the Pirates tried to stay within striking distance. But St. Louis answered emphatically in the top of the eighth against Isaac Mattson, when Nathan Church's double added 11.4 percent in win probability and Masyn Winn followed with a single worth another 8.7 percent, the inning ultimately producing five runs that effectively sealed matters. On the Pittsburgh side, Konnor Griffin's forceout in the bottom of the fourth off Hunter Dobbins cost the Pirates 8.7 percent in win probability at a moment when a hit could have changed the complexion of the game.
Among position players, Alec Burleson led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Lowe contributed plus-10.5 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 despite his seventh-inning home run coming in a losing effort. Winn posted plus-10.4 percent WPA for St. Louis. On the mound, Hunter Dobbins led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.2 percent, followed by Gordon Graceffo at plus-11.8 percent and Yohan Ramírez at plus-4.4 percent, a collective pitching performance that kept Pittsburgh's offense manageable across the game's critical stretches.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.