The Seattle Mariners rallied past the Minnesota Twins 5-3 at Target Field on April 29, 2026, completing a comeback that erased a 3-1 deficit heading into the ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had given the Twins a 46% chance to win before first pitch, but that probability collapsed entirely by game's end. Minnesota held a multi-run advantage through eight frames, with Brooks Lee's fourth-inning single off George Kirby carrying a +20.7% win-probability swing and Victor Caratini's eighth-inning single off Gabe Speier adding another +19.2% boost to keep the Twins in control heading to the final frame.
The ninth inning reversed everything. With Seattle trailing and facing Eric Orze, Cole Young delivered the most consequential hit of the game, a single that swung win probability by +50.6% in the Mariners' favor in a single stroke. Dominic Canzone followed with his own single off Orze, contributing another +17.5% shift, and Seattle pushed three runs across to take a 5-3 lead. Andrés Muñoz then closed out the Twins in the bottom half, with James Outman's strikeout representing a +14.4% win-probability hold for Seattle as the final out of the game.
Cole Young was the clear standout performer, finishing with a combined WPA of +58.2% and a RE24 of +2.0, numbers that reflected how singularly his ninth-inning hit altered the game's trajectory. J.P. Crawford was nearly as impactful at +26.6% WPA and +2.0 RE24, while Caratini's +19.2% WPA gave Minnesota its last meaningful push before the bullpen faltered. On the mound, Taj Bradley led Seattle's pitching staff with a +12.9% WPA contribution, supported by Anthony Banda at +10.6% and José A. Ferrer at +8.6% as the Mariners' late-game arms held firm.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.