The Cincinnati Reds handled the Colorado Rockies 7-2 at Great American Ball Park on April 28, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming, installing Cincinnati as a 74% favorite before first pitch and closing at 100% by game's end. The Reds built their advantage early, scoring three runs in the first inning, and added three more in the eighth to put the game firmly away. Colorado finished with 11 hits but managed just two runs, a testament to Cincinnati's pitching holding firm when it mattered most.
The game's decisive moments were largely defined by Edouard Julien, who was the most impactful player on the field according to WPA. His home run off Chase Burns in the third inning shifted win probability by plus-8.2 percent in Colorado's favor, and his single in the fifth added another plus-9.2 percent swing, briefly threatening to tighten the contest. Troy Johnston's double off Burns in the sixth was the single largest positive swing for the Rockies at plus-10.9 percent. However, Hunter Goodman's bases-loaded double play ball off Graham Ashcraft in the seventh was the game's most consequential play in the opposite direction, a minus-12.8 percent swing that extinguished Colorado's best remaining rally opportunity.
Despite the individual offensive contributions from Julien, the night ultimately belonged to Cincinnati. Elly De La Cruz led all players with a RE24 of plus-3.2 and added plus-14.8 percent in WPA, while TJ Rumfield contributed plus-11.8 percent WPA on the offensive side. On the mound, Tony Santillan led Cincinnati's pitching staff with plus-8.1 percent WPA, followed by Ashcraft at plus-7.2 percent, the two combining to shut down any Rockies momentum in the game's later innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.