The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 11-7 at PNC Park on April 28, 2026, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. St. Louis built its advantage in waves, plating runs in the second, third, and fifth innings before Pittsburgh mounted a three-run sixth to briefly close the gap, then watched the Cardinals pour on three more in the seventh and two in the eighth to put the game out of reach. The Cardinals finished with 12 hits and no errors while Pittsburgh committed two of its own across 13 hits.
The decisive swings came early and were driven by Cardinals batters working against Braxton Ashcraft. In the third inning, Victor Scott II connected on a home run off Ashcraft that shifted win probability by plus-9.8 percent, and Jordan Walker followed with a single in that same frame worth plus-7.6 percent. Walker added another pivotal single in the seventh off Hunter Barco, that one worth plus-6.9 percent. On the Pittsburgh side, Ryan O'Hearn gave the PNC Park crowd something to hold onto with a home run off Kyle Leahy in the sixth that carried a plus-9.6 percent swing, but O'Hearn had also been the source of the game's single largest negative swing earlier, grounding into a double play against Leahy in the fourth at minus-8.5 percent.
Walker finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, accumulating plus-14.0 percent in win probability added alongside a RE24 of plus-1.3. Nolan Gorman posted the strongest run-environment figure among Cardinals hitters at plus-1.9 RE24 to go with plus-7.8 percent in win probability added. Scott II contributed plus-7.0 percent in win probability added. On the pitching side, Gordon Graceffo led Cardinals arms with plus-6.7 percent, while Kyle Leahy was Pittsburgh's most effective reliever at plus-4.2 percent despite the difficult context he inherited.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.