The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Houston Astros 5-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 28, 2026, handing Houston a road loss behind a balanced offensive effort and strong bullpen work. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Baltimore as a 65% favorite and closed at 100% as the Orioles locked down the result through the final innings.
The game's decisive swings came in the fifth and seventh innings. Pete Alonso provided the biggest single play of the night in the bottom of the fifth, connecting on a home run off Ryan Weiss that shifted win probability by plus 19.6 points in Baltimore's favor and gave the Orioles a commanding cushion at that stage. Houston had actually generated some momentum earlier in that same inning when Brice Matthews launched a home run off Shane Baz in the top of the fifth, a plus 10.9 point swing that briefly kept the Astros within reach. Any hopes of a Houston rally in the seventh, however, were extinguished when Andrew Kittredge struck out Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes in succession, each strikeout costing the Astros 9.2 points of win probability and effectively ending their most credible threat of the night.
Matthews was the top performer by WPA on either side, finishing with a combined plus 29.2 win probability added and a RE24 of plus 2.9, driven by both his fifth-inning home run and a go-ahead double off Kittredge in the seventh worth plus 13.4 points. Alonso posted plus 17.6 WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 to lead Baltimore's position players. On the pitching side, Shane Baz led all pitchers with plus 9.6 WPA, followed by Ryan Helsley at plus 6.3 and Kittredge at plus 5.0 as the Orioles' bullpen preserved the win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.