The St. Louis Cardinals completed a stunning ninth-inning comeback to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 at PNC Park on April 27, 2026, rallying for all four of their runs in the final frame after being held scoreless through eight innings. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with Pittsburgh holding a 56 percent home win probability, and that edge appeared well-founded heading into the ninth, but St. Louis erased it entirely in a matter of minutes, pushing the model's estimate to zero percent for the Pirates by the final out.
The decisive sequence began when JJ Wetherholt connected on a home run off Dennis Santana, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 35.7 percent in the Cardinals' favor and broke open what had been a tight game. Jordan Walker drew a walk moments later, adding another plus 15.3 percent swing, before José Fermín delivered a two-run double off Santana that pushed the Cardinals' advantage to four runs and contributed plus 23.6 percent to St. Louis's win probability. The lone significant Cardinals setback had come an inning earlier, when Masyn Winn grounded into a double play against Gregory Soto, a play that cost the Cardinals 13.8 percent in win probability and briefly stalled their momentum. Pittsburgh's final threat was snuffed out when Konnor Griffin flew out against George Soriano in the bottom of the ninth, a result that actually improved St. Louis's probability by plus 12.0 percent as the game ended.
Fermín led all players by WPA, finishing at plus 30.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.8, while Wetherholt was close behind at plus 29.4 percent. On the mound, Wilber Dotel was the Cardinals' most impactful reliever, contributing plus 22.7 percent in win probability, with Gregory Soto adding plus 8.1 percent for Pittsburgh in a performance that ultimately could not hold up against the Cardinals' ninth-inning outburst.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.