The Houston Astros defeated the New York Yankees 7-4 at Daikin Park on April 26, 2026, a result that looked far from certain before first pitch. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Houston just a 28% chance of winning at the start, but the Astros built their advantage methodically through the early innings and never surrendered the lead, finishing at 100% probability as the final out was recorded.
The decisive moments came in bunches for Houston. Isaac Paredes delivered the single most impactful swing of the game, a home run off Luis Gil in the bottom of the third inning that shifted win probability by plus 14.4 percentage points, and he finished as the top offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus 15.6 and an RE24 of plus 2.3. Houston's grip tightened across the early frames with a two-run first, a two-run third, and three runs in the fifth, while New York managed just a run in the sixth and three in a late ninth when the game was well out of reach. On the other side of the ledger, J.C. Escarra's strikeout in the top of the second cost the Yankees 12.5 percentage points of win probability against Arrighetti, and Aaron Judge's flyout to open the first subtracted another 6.6 points.
Spencer Arrighetti was the story on the mound, accumulating a game-high plus 32.5% WPA for Houston and neutralizing a Yankees lineup that finished with seven hits and an error. Daniel Johnson contributed plus 9.4% WPA at the plate despite a negative RE24, and Dustin Harris added plus 6.9% WPA, aided in part by a first-inning pickoff that swung win probability nearly 10 points in Houston's favor off Gil. The model leans toward crediting Arrighetti's outing as the central factor in converting a heavy underdog position into a comfortable seven-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.