The Colorado Rockies shut out the New York Mets 3-0 at Citi Field on April 25, 2026, handing New York a defeat the DiamondIQ model's estimate had projected as unlikely from the outset, with a pre-game home win probability of just 41 percent that fell to zero by the final out. Colorado scored all three of its runs in the first three innings, tallying one in the second and two more in the third, then held New York scoreless across the final seven frames despite the Mets collecting six hits on the night.
The pivotal moment came in the top of the third inning, when Hunter Goodman launched a home run off Kodai Senga that swung win probability 14.9 percent in Colorado's favor. That blow proved to be the decisive shift of the game, and Goodman finished as the night's top offensive contributor by both WPA and RE24, finishing at plus-12.3 percent and plus-1.0 respectively. New York's best chance to respond came in the fifth inning, but a Tyrone Taylor double play off Chase Dollander extinguished any momentum, costing the Mets 9.1 percent in win probability. Carson Benge had a mixed night for New York, a fifth-inning single generated plus-4.7 percent, but his groundout in the second and a flyout in the ninth framed a difficult evening overall, leaving him at plus-6.1 percent WPA but minus-0.6 RE24.
Chase Dollander was the clear story of the game on the mound, his performance generating plus-30.9 percent in win probability added, the highest mark of any player on either side. Carl Edwards Jr. added plus-11.8 percent out of the bullpen, and Seth Halvorsen contributed plus-5.2 percent as the Colorado pitching staff combined to hold a Mets lineup that mustered six hits but could not produce a single run. The DiamondIQ model favored New York entering the night, but Dollander and the Rockies made that projection irrelevant well before the ninth inning concluded.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.