The Colorado Rockies handed the New York Mets a 3-1 defeat at Citi Field on April 26, 2026, completing a wire-to-wire victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side just a 44 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Colorado scored in three separate innings — the fourth, sixth, and seventh — while the Mets managed their lone run in the fifth. The Rockies committed no errors against the Mets' one, and Colorado's pitching staff largely controlled a lineup that finished with only four hits.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth inning, where the game's most consequential moments were concentrated. Juan Soto drew a walk off Jaden Hill that shifted win probability in the Mets' favor by 18.9 percent, briefly tightening the contest, but Hill responded by retiring Mark Vientos on a strikeout that swung win probability 20.9 percent against New York — the single largest swing of the game. Luis Robert Jr. then popped out, costing the Mets another 14.5 percent in win probability, and Hill effectively ended any realistic comeback. Victor Vodnik closed it out in the ninth, and MJ Melendez's strikeout to end the game added 14.4 percent to Colorado's final win probability.
Among Colorado's standout performers, Jaden Hill led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.3 percent, followed closely by Juan Mejia at plus-13.0 percent and Jose Quintana at plus-9.9 percent. On the offensive side, MJ Melendez posted the top batting WPA at plus-14.4 percent, while Juan Soto led New York with a mark of plus-12.7 percent despite the Mets' inability to convert in the eighth. Jake McCarthy contributed plus-11.9 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.0, the strongest run-environment impact among all position players on either side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.