The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the San Diego Padres a 12-7 defeat on April 26, 2026, at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, erasing an early deficit to pull away in dominant fashion over the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Arizona holding a 42 percent chance of winning before first pitch, a figure that climbed steadily and closed at 100 percent by game's end.
The Padres built an early advantage through the first six innings, with Manny Machado accounting for the most significant offensive contributions of that stretch. His home run off Ryne Nelson in the third inning shifted win probability by plus-18.4 percent in San Diego's favor, and he connected again off Nelson in the fifth for another swing of plus-10.6 percent. Machado finished as the game's second-most impactful batter overall, posting a plus-27.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.9. Those were meaningful numbers, but they were ultimately overwhelmed by what Arizona produced in the seventh and eighth innings.
The Diamondbacks turned a one-run deficit into a commanding lead with a six-run seventh and a four-run eighth. The decisive moment came when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. doubled off Bradgley Rodriguez in the bottom of the seventh, a swing worth plus-31.8 percent in win probability that gave Gurriel Jr. the game's top WPA mark at plus-31.0 with a RE24 of plus-2.2. Tim Tawa followed with a home run off David Morgan, adding another plus-29.2 percent to finish at plus-22.4 percent WPA for the night. Ildemaro Vargas continued the damage in the eighth with a triple off Ron Marinaccio worth plus-12.4 percent. On the mound, Michael King led Arizona's pitching staff with a plus-12.9 percent WPA, followed by Juan Morillo at plus-10.8 percent, as the two combined to hold San Diego in check through the game's critical stretch.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.