The San Francisco Giants defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 at Oracle Park on April 26, 2026, in a game where the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Miami grabbed an early advantage in the second inning when Graham Pauley connected on a home run off Landen Roupp, a swing that shifted win probability 13.2 percent in the Marlins' favor, but the Giants began chipping away with a run of their own in the bottom half. San Francisco answered more decisively in the sixth, when Rafael Devers stroked a double off Calvin Faucher for a 17.0 percent win-probability swing, followed shortly by a Drew Gilbert single that added another 8.2 percent, collectively erasing Miami's lead and turning the game in the Giants' favor.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh, when Casey Schmitt crushed a home run off Andrew Nardi for a 22.8 percent single-play win-probability swing, the largest of the game. That hit proved to be the knockout punch, pushing San Francisco's advantage beyond recovery. Schmitt finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-23.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Rafael Devers contributed plus-12.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0, and Matt Chapman added plus-12.9 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Max Meyer led all pitchers with a plus-22.2 percent WPA, with Landen Roupp and Erik Miller each contributing positively despite Roupp having surrendered the Pauley home run early. Miami managed only two hits and committed one error, while San Francisco collected eight hits without an error in a clean and commanding performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.