The San Diego Padres defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 on April 25, 2026, at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, handing Arizona a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected starkly — the Diamondbacks entered with a 38% win probability and finished at 0%. The game's scoring was concentrated in just two innings. Arizona broke through first in the bottom of the second, when Jose Fernandez delivered a double off Germán Márquez that shifted win probability by 13.3 percentage points in the Diamondbacks' favor and helped fuel a four-run frame. San Diego answered with a patient, damaging seventh inning, with Xander Bogaerts drawing a walk off Brandon Pfaadt that swung win probability 15.9 points toward the Padres, and Jake Cronenworth being hit by a pitch from Taylor Clarke that added another 13.9 points. The Padres pushed four runs across in the seventh to take control.
The decisive late-game moments underscored San Diego's hold on the contest. Jason Adam, who finished as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus-23.3 percentage points, stranded Arizona's threat in the eighth when Jose Fernandez grounded into a forceout, a play that swung win probability 16.5 points away from the Diamondbacks and effectively sealed the outcome. Zac Gallen also contributed meaningfully on the pitching side, posting plus-14.5 WPA. Among position players, Ty France led all batters with plus-22.6 WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, making him the game's most impactful offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Cronenworth added plus-14.5 WPA, while Ketel Marte's plus-17.2 WPA came largely without direct run production, reflected in his 0.0 RE24, as his contributions came in preserving rather than extending Arizona's position. The final line — San Diego with six runs on six hits and one error, Arizona with four runs on seven hits and three errors — showed the Diamondbacks' defensive miscues as a compounding factor in their defeat.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.