The Seattle Mariners erased a deficit that looked increasingly steep and escaped Busch Stadium with an 11-9 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on April 25, 2026. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with St. Louis holding a 61 percent pre-game win probability, and the Cardinals did enough early to justify that projection, building a four-run third inning capped by a Pedro Pagés home run off Bryan Woo — a swing worth plus 16.6 percent in win probability — followed by a Masyn Winn single that added another 14.1 percent. St. Louis led through six innings and still appeared to be in command heading into the seventh, where Nathan Church delivered the decisive blow of the game, a home run off Cooper Criswell that swung win probability by plus 26.2 percent and represented the single most impactful play of the night.
Seattle then seized full control in the final two innings. Connor Joe's single off Riley O'Brien in the eighth shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 19.0 percent, and Leo Rivas followed with a single in the ninth worth plus 22.3 percent, the Mariners pushing across two runs in each of those frames to close the final score at 11-9. Seattle finished with 19 hits against zero errors, with Cole Young accumulating plus 29.1 percent in win probability and plus 1.9 RE24 in support of Church, who led all position players with plus 42.5 percent WPA and plus 2.5 RE24. Out of the bullpen, Matt Brash was the most effective Seattle arm at plus 10.9 percent WPA, followed by José A. Ferrer at plus 8.6 percent, as the Mariners bullpen held the Cardinals offense at bay over the final innings to seal the road win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.