MLB Recap · April 25, 2026

Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

CLE3
Final
TOR5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE001000101391
TOR00010310-590

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-3 at Rogers Centre on April 25, 2026, in a game that shifted decisively in the sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Toronto a 43% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Blue Jays controlled the game's critical moments.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, where Toronto turned a close game into a comfortable lead. Kazuma Okamoto opened the inning's damage with a single off Joey Cantillo that added 10.7 percentage points to Toronto's win probability, and Andrés Giménez followed with a double off Matt Festa that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-19.4 points. Those two plays were the spine of a three-run sixth that proved insurmountable. Okamoto had already done damage in the fourth, connecting on a solo home run off Cantillo for a swing of plus-11.9 points. Cleveland's most meaningful response came in the seventh, when David Fry launched a home run off Kevin Gausman worth plus-8.6 points, briefly keeping the Guardians within reach, but Bo Naylor's strikeout to end the ninth, a minus-9.0 point swing off Louis Varland, closed the door on any late rally.

Individually, Okamoto was the game's dominant offensive force, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-27.2 and an RE24 of plus-2.6, his two decisive hits accounting for the bulk of Toronto's winning margin. Giménez added plus-16.9 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Juan Brito contributed plus-6.9 WPA in a supporting role. On the mound, Kevin Gausman paced the Toronto staff with plus-17.6 WPA despite surrendering Fry's home run, and Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland combined to add plus-6.9 WPA in relief to seal the victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalTOR win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Andrés Giménez Double
Bot 6th · off Matt Festa
+19.4%
Kazuma Okamoto Home Run
Bot 4th · off Joey Cantillo
+11.9%
Kazuma Okamoto Single
Bot 6th · off Joey Cantillo
+10.7%
Bo Naylor Strikeout
Top 9th · off Louis Varland
-9.0%
David Fry Home Run
Top 7th · off Kevin Gausman
+8.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Kazuma Okamoto+27.2%+2.6 RE24
Andrés Giménez+16.9%+1.1 RE24
Juan Brito+6.9%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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