The Colorado Rockies defeated the New York Mets 4-3 at Citi Field on April 24, 2026, handing New York a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened as a near coin flip, assigning the home side a 47% win probability before first pitch. Colorado built its lead incrementally, scoring in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings before the Mets mounted a two-run rally in the bottom of the eighth to pull within one. The Rockies ultimately held on, and by the final out the DiamondIQ model placed New York's win probability at 0%.
The decisive swing moments came in bunches over the final two innings. In the bottom of the eighth, Brett Baty's single off Jaden Hill shifted the win probability 20.9 points in New York's favor, igniting what looked like a genuine comeback, but Mark Vientos grounded into a double play off Antonio Senzatela that reversed 27.3 points of win probability and extinguished the rally before it could fully materialize. Colorado had done its own damage earlier, with Jake McCarthy delivering a double off Freddy Peralta in the sixth that swung the model 17.3 points toward the Rockies, and Troy Johnston adding a run-scoring single off Sean Manaea in the seventh worth 13.1 points. In the ninth, MJ Melendez struck out against Senzatela with the tying run on base, a moment that registered as the game's single largest win-probability event at plus-31.6 points for Colorado's side.
Among individual performers, Melendez led all batters by WPA at plus-31.6% despite carrying a negative RE24 of minus-0.1, his value concentrated entirely in that final at-bat. Brett Baty followed at plus-21.6% WPA with a plus-1.6 RE24, representing the Mets' most impactful offensive contribution. On the pitching side, Michael Lorenzen was the game's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting plus-22.8% WPA, while Senzatela added plus-10.5% in relief to close it out. Hunter Goodman contributed plus-13.4% WPA and a plus-0.7 RE24 for Colorado's offense. Colorado finished with 10 hits and one error; New York collected 11 hits but could not convert them into enough runs.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.