The Chicago White Sox defeated the Washington Nationals 5-4 at Rate Field on April 24, 2026, in a game that remained contested into the final innings before Chicago ultimately held on. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the White Sox a 56 percent chance of winning at home, and while that edge held through the final out, Washington made the closing moments genuinely uncertain before the model's estimate reached 100 percent at the game's conclusion.
The decisive stretch came in the seventh and eighth innings, where both clubs exchanged significant win-probability swings. Tristan Peters delivered the biggest blow for Chicago in the bottom of the seventh, a single off Riley Cornelio that shifted win probability by 15.6 points in the White Sox's favor. Washington answered in the top of the eighth when Brady House launched a home run against Jordan Leasure, a swing worth 18.6 points of win probability that briefly tightened the contest. The Nationals carried that momentum into the ninth, where Luis García Jr. ripped a double off Seranthony Domínguez worth 13.7 points, but James Wood's strikeout against the same pitcher cost Washington 12.7 points and effectively sealed their fate. Munetaka Murakami had provided an earlier boost for Chicago with a fourth-inning home run off Miles Mikolas worth 12.1 points.
García finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-21.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while House posted plus-18.9 percent and Peters contributed plus-15.9 percent despite his team falling short. On the pitching side, Domínguez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.2 percent, closing out the win for Chicago despite the late Washington pressure. Mikolas added plus-9.3 percent and PJ Poulin contributed plus-4.6 percent as the White Sox improved their case for a well-earned home victory across a tightly played nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.