The Cleveland Guardians held off the Toronto Blue Jays 8-6 at Rogers Centre on April 24, 2026, securing a road win that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave just a 39 percent chance of occurring before first pitch. Cleveland struck early and decisively, plating five runs in the first inning to set the tone, then added two more in the third to push the lead to seven. Toronto chipped away with single runs in the second and fifth and two more in the sixth, but the Guardians' cushion proved too substantial to overcome.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the third inning, when Angel Martínez connected for a home run off Max Scherzer, a swing that shifted win probability 12.9 percent in Cleveland's favor. On the Toronto side, Andrés Giménez's double in the sixth off Gavin Williams represented the Blue Jays' most impactful offensive moment, adding 13.7 percent to their win probability as they attempted to claw back into the contest. Ernie Clement's double in the fifth off Williams had earlier added 8.2 percent, keeping Toronto's hopes alive into the late innings. Cleveland's bullpen closed the door, with Cade Smith inducing a game-ending double play off the bat of Eloy Jiménez in the ninth, a play that swung win probability 14.8 percent toward the Guardians, followed by Davis Schneider's pop out that added another 11.1 percent.
Among the standout performers, Angel Martínez finished with a plus-11.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.2, the highest run-context contribution of any batter in the game. Andrés Giménez posted a plus-16.8 percent WPA alongside a plus-1.9 RE24 to lead Toronto's offensive effort, while Kazuma Okamoto contributed plus-15.4 percent WPA and a plus-1.5 RE24 for Cleveland. On the mound, Erik Sabrowski led all pitchers with a plus-13.3 percent WPA, supported by Hunter Gaddis at plus-8.8 percent and Tommy Nance at plus-4.2 percent, a trio of relief efforts that preserved the two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.