The Chicago Cubs erased a three-run deficit and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on April 24, 2026, completing a full reversal of a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with Los Angeles holding a 54 percent win probability. The Cubs were held scoreless through six innings before breaking through with three runs in the seventh, one in the eighth, and two more in the ninth to close out the victory. The Dodgers had built their lead on a Will Smith home run off Jameson Taillon in the third inning, a swing that added 26.3 percent to Los Angeles's win probability and represented the high-water mark of the home team's evening.
The turning point came in the seventh inning when Dansby Swanson hit a triple off Alex Vesia, a play that shifted win probability by 13.6 percent in Chicago's favor and helped manufacture the three-run frame that pulled the Cubs even. Swanson then delivered the decisive blow in the ninth, launching a home run off Tanner Scott that added 35.1 percent to Chicago's win probability and stood as the single most impactful offensive play of the game. Alex Bregman added insurance with a home run off Blake Treinen in the eighth, worth 18.6 percent in win probability swing. Andy Pages's flyout to end the bottom of the ninth — representing a 14.4 percent positive swing for the Cubs — confirmed the final margin.
Swanson finished as the game's most valuable offensive performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-51.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.8. Will Smith led Dodger contributors at plus-20.7 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24, though his team's bullpen could not protect the lead. On the pitching side, Emmet Sheehan led all pitchers with plus-19.3 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Rolison at plus-17.0 percent, as the Cubs' staff held Los Angeles to four runs on six hits and no errors. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Cubs' back-half lineup production and bullpen stability as the primary drivers of the comeback.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.