The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Chicago White Sox 11-7 at Chase Field on April 22, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, with Arizona entering at a 73% pre-game win probability and closing at 100%. The Diamondbacks built their margin early and never surrendered control, outpacing Chicago across the hit column as well, 16 to 11, with neither team committing an error.
The decisive force of the game was Ildemaro Vargas, who delivered back-to-back home runs against White Sox starter Anthony Kay that shifted the contest's trajectory in the second and third innings. His second-inning blast added 16.1% to Arizona's win probability, and he followed it with another solo shot in the third worth an additional 15.9%, giving him a combined WPA of +31.5% and an RE24 of +3.4, the highest marks of any position player on either side. The most damaging moment for Chicago came in the first inning, when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounded out with runners on base, a play that cost the White Sox 11.4% in win probability. Miguel Vargas briefly kept Chicago relevant with a home run off Eduardo Rodriguez in the top of the third, adding 9.7% to the White Sox's outlook, while Tanner Murray's strikeout to open the game for Arizona produced a 9.3% swing in the Diamondbacks' favor.
Beyond Ildemaro Vargas, Nolan Arenado was Arizona's second-most impactful contributor, posting a WPA of +18.3% and an RE24 of +3.6, the highest run-environment figure of the game. On the mound, Juan Morillo led Arizona's relievers with +1.9% WPA, followed by Bryan Hudson at +1.1% and Paul Sewald at +0.7%, as the bullpen closed out the final innings without incident.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.