The New York Mets defeated the Minnesota Twins 3-2 at Citi Field on April 22, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected dramatically — the Mets entered with just a 37% home win probability and closed at 100%. New York scored in the first, matched a Twins run in the fourth, and ultimately pulled ahead for good with a run in the eighth inning, while Minnesota's offense could not overcome a two-run deficit despite recording seven hits.
The game turned on a series of high-leverage swings in the middle and late innings. Byron Buxton delivered the biggest blow for Minnesota, launching a home run off Clay Holmes in the top of the sixth that shifted win probability by +13.6 points and briefly gave the Twins life. Francisco Alvarez had been the catalyst for New York earlier, lacing a double off Connor Prielipp in the fourth for a +12.9-point swing, though he surrendered much of that value by grounding into a double play in the sixth (-10.2 points) against Kendry Rojas. The decisive moment came in the bottom of the eighth, when Mark Vientos singled off Justin Topa for a +16.4-point swing, plating the go-ahead run and swinging the outcome firmly toward the Mets. Minnesota's Luke Keaschall had a chance to respond at the top of that frame but popped out against Luke Weaver, a -15.2-point swing that effectively sealed Minnesota's fate.
On the pitching side, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes were the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's measure, contributing +22.4 and +22.0 win-probability points respectively, with Kendry Rojas adding +12.1 points. Among position players, Vientos led all batters at +13.5 WPA, while Alvarez finished at +12.2 despite his costly double play, and Ryan Jeffers represented the brightest spot for Minnesota at +8.0 WPA. The Mets' three-run, eight-hit effort was just enough to hold off a Twins lineup that left value on the table at critical junctures.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.