The Detroit Tigers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-2 at Comerica Park on April 22, 2026, in a game that began as a coin flip — the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Detroit a 49 percent pre-game win probability — and ended with the model's estimate reaching 100 percent in favor of the home side. Milwaukee managed to scratch across a run in the third inning when William Contreras singled off Casey Mize, a play that swung win probability 10.7 percent in the Brewers' favor, but Detroit answered with the swing that effectively decided the contest in the bottom of the fourth. Spencer Torkelson connected on a home run off Chad Patrick, a swing worth 18.9 percent in win probability, shifting the game's center of gravity firmly toward the Tigers.
Detroit continued to build its lead in the fifth inning at Patrick's expense. Kevin McGonigle doubled to extend the advantage, adding 11.9 percent in win probability, and Colt Keith followed with a single worth another 7.3 percent. Milwaukee made a minor push in the eighth when Jake Bauers singled off Will Vest for a 6.9 percent swing, but the Brewers finished the night with just six hits and were unable to mount a meaningful comeback, dropping the final 5-2.
Among the game's standout performers, Torkelson led all batters with a WPA of plus-15.0 and an RE24 of plus-0.8, while McGonigle posted a WPA of plus-9.1 and the game's top RE24 figure among position players at plus-1.1. Luis Rengifo also contributed meaningfully at plus-9.4 WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. On the mound, Casey Mize led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-11.2, followed by Kyle Finnegan at plus-9.8 and DL Hall at plus-4.4, a trio that collectively preserved and extended Detroit's advantage through the final innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.