The San Francisco Giants defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1 at Oracle Park on April 21, 2026, with all three Giants runs coming in the first inning and the game never seriously in doubt after that. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Francisco just a 28% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, a swing almost entirely constructed in the earliest exchanges of the contest.
The decisive moment came from the pitching side rather than the offense. Landen Roupp was the central figure of the game, accumulating a model-leading +28.9% WPA by systematically neutralizing Dodgers threats. Alex Call proved the most damaging Dodgers hitter against his own team's chances, with a groundout in the second inning costing Los Angeles 14.3 percentage points of win probability and a double-play grounder in the fourth costing another 17.2 points, the single largest swing of the night. Hyeseong Kim's walk off Roupp in the fourth inning represented the Dodgers' brightest moment, adding 9.8 points of win probability, but the rally went nowhere. Erik Miller and Ryan Borucki each added to San Francisco's bullpen ledger, contributing +6.7% and +6.4% WPA respectively as the Giants held Los Angeles to one run on three hits with an error.
Among Giants position players, Luis Arraez led the way at +11.4% WPA despite a neutral RE24 of 0.0, his flyout off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the second inning generating 12.2 points of win probability in a sequence that reinforced the Giants' early cushion. Drew Gilbert contributed +9.9% WPA on a similar flyout off Yamamoto in the first. Los Angeles managed its lone run in the fourth inning but could not generate anything further against a Giants pitching staff that finished the game without an error and held firm across all nine frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.