The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Detroit Tigers a lopsided 12-4 defeat at Comerica Park on April 21, 2026, pounding out 16 hits and building an insurmountable lead that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win at 0% by the final out. The Tigers entered the evening with a 45% pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model, but Milwaukee's offense steadily eroded that advantage before an eight-run eighth inning sealed the outcome completely.
The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the top of the seventh inning, where Brice Turang delivered a single off Enmanuel De Jesus that shifted win probability by +8.7%, followed shortly by a William Contreras single off the same pitcher worth an additional +7.1%. Detroit had opportunities to keep the contest within reach earlier, but Javier Báez proved to be the Tigers' most damaging presence at the plate in a negative sense — a second-inning flyout cost Detroit 8.0% in win probability off Kyle Harrison, and a fourth-inning grounded into double play off Grant Anderson erased another 7.8%. Matt Vierling contributed a similar double-play groundout in the fifth, off Anderson, that bled away another 7.1%.
On the pitching side, Grant Anderson was the Brewers' most dominant presence by the DiamondIQ model's WPA accounting, posting an impressive +18.7% contribution, with Trevor Megill adding +7.5% and Aaron Ashby contributing +3.6%. Among the Milwaukee hitters, Turang finished as the top WPA performer at +11.0% with a RE24 of +0.6, while Contreras posted +10.5% and the game's highest RE24 among position players at +1.2. Hao-Yu Lee rounded out the top three batters at +7.0% WPA. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward Milwaukee as the game progressed, and the Brewers never gave the model reason to reconsider.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.