The Chicago Cubs defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-1 at Wrigley Field on April 20, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had leaning toward the home side from the outset, with a pre-game win probability of 75% that climbed to 100% by the final out. The outcome was effectively decided in the second inning, when the Cubs plated four runs to build a lead Philadelphia never threatened to overcome. The single most consequential swing of the game came from Dansby Swanson, whose home run off Aaron Nola in the bottom of the second shifted win probability by +15.9 percentage points, the largest single-play WPA of the night. A subsequent walk issued to Michael Conforto, also off Nola, added another +6.8 points, compounding the damage in what became a five-run frame across the first three innings.
Swanson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +14.5%, backed by a RE24 of +2.0, reflecting the outsized run-value impact of his second-inning blast. Conforto contributed +7.9% WPA and +1.0 RE24, while Justin Crawford added +7.4% WPA and +1.6 RE24, his double off Colin Rea in the top of the fourth representing the most notable Philadelphia threat at +4.9 points, though it produced only the Phillies' lone run. On the mound, Colin Rea led Chicago's pitching staff with a WPA of +3.2%, followed closely by Hoby Milner at +3.1% and Kyle Backhus at +1.7%, a collective effort that kept Philadelphia to six hits and no errors while the offense did its damage early.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.